Global Warming and Hurricanes - The Truth ?
By 186 on Apr 30, 2008
New MIT study validates hurricane prediction - MIT News Office
Hurricanes in some areas, including the North Atlantic, are likely to become more intense as a result of global warming even though the number of such storms worldwide may decline, according to a new study by MIT researchers.———However, Emanuel says, the new work also raises some questions that remain to be understood. When projected into the future, the model shows a continuing increase in power, “but a lot less than the factor of two that we’ve already seen” he says. “So we have a paradox that remains to be explained.”
Seafoam hits fan over hurricane research - MIT News Office
Q: How do you feel about the media coverage of the new paper?A: I thought [the Houston Chronicle story] wasn’t bad except for the title [which was “Hurricane expert reconsiders global warming’s impact”]. The actual content was okay. In other cases, the people you expect to put a spin on it, put a spin on it. Skeptics’ blogs reported that I’d reversed my position. Other blogs latched onto the fact that we’re still predicting a very substantial increase. There’s a lot to spin.
How do you write a paper that you know could be spun both ways? You just put out a paper that lays it out as best you can.
Q: Were you surprised by the reaction?
A: It is treacherous. Most of what I publish is not subject to public scrutiny; I’m writing for fellow scientists. But in this charged atmosphere [on global warming], most of what you write gets dissected by people outside the community.
[The Chronicle story] was clever to point out that people who are crowing [over the claim of a reversal] are in effect crowing over the same climate models that they spend most of their time criticizing.
When Fox News called me up, they started from the premise that I’d reversed myself. I said that’s really not true, it’s just that things are more complicated. It was a very short interview. I guess that’s what happens when people don’t spin things the way they think.
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